I woke up from a nap to see the Clowe trade. My first thought was, "damn it." It's not that I have anything against Ryane Clowe. It's that it was, at first glance, an incredibly steep price to pay for a guy who has struggled offensively this season. Especially with the 2013 1st rounder sent to Columbus in the Nash deal, can we really afford to move our 2013 2nd rounder as well?
But like any rational (HA!) fan, I decided to step back and review all aspects of the trade before really deciding how I feel about it. And in doing so I'm beginning to form some different opinions on the deal. Let's analyze the trade a bit deeper and see how it might make some sense for the Rangers.
Let's get this out of the way first: Ryane Clowe has zero goals this season. Perfect fit for the Rangers! Ha ha! Hilarious! Are we done?
Getting 65 shots on goal and having zero go in goes way beyond skill; that is absolutely absurd (bad) luck. Fear The Fin confirms this:
"There's also the whole Clowe approaching the one-year anniversary of the last time he scored a goal in the NHL thing but it's likely that most GMs see this streak for the unfortunate run of percentages that it is (the hockey gods exacting revenge on Clowe for playing the puck from the bench, presumably) rather than an indication he's fallen off the map as a player."
The law of averages dictates that pucks soon have to start going in for Clowe, and if that starts now then Sather will look like a genius. Hes probably not the 25 goal scorer he once was but he sure as hell isn't a single-digits (or zero) goal scorer, either.
The goal struggle has undermined what Clowe HAS done well offensively; set others up. Clowe missed seven games with the Sharks and still ranked tied for third on the team in assists with 11; only Thornton and Pavelski had more (and in more games played.) He's not your typical playmaker in the way you'd think of a Pavel Datsyuk or Martin St. Louis but he does create goals for his team. At 6'2 and 225 pounds he fits the mold of a power forward and opens up a lot of space for his linemates. He's a pain to deal with on the boards and will help gain possession in the offensive zone. Even if he isn't physically scoring goals himself, he's going to be an upgrade offensively one way or another.
The offense he (potentially) brings is important, but it is easy to see why Sather picked up Clowe and not a different winger; Clowe fits this team's identity to a T. If Brandon Prust had 20 goal, 50 point ability then he would be pretty damn close to what Ryane Clowe is. He brings energy every shift. He is second on the Sharks in hits (again, despite missing seven games). And he's going to fight. Rest assured that the first time Ryane Clowe is on the ice when Lundqvist gets run or someone gets in Gaborik's face he'll drop the gloves regardless of whom it is against. You're not going to get the PK minutes you get from Prust, but his offensive abilities more than make up for that. He's the inferior player at this point in his career, but Clowe is basically our Milan Lucic. Even Tortorella admitted that our bottom-six has lost its edge with some of the offseason departures. Clowe is someone who will help to fix that. He's a heart and soul player who leaves it all out on the ice and will stick up for his team.
This is all nice, but an acquisition can only be evaluated by factoring in what the move cost. The Rangers gave up a 2nd and 3rd this year and a conditional 2nd next year. It's not an easy price to swallow, but that's the nature of the trading deadline. There are more teams looking to add quality players than there are quality players available, and as a result prices are inflated. A similar (and probably worse) player in Brenden Morrow cost the Penguins a high-end defensive prospect. Sharks GM Doug Wilson reportedly wanted a similar kind of return, which he ultimately did not get. The wildcard here is that conditional 2nd rounder. The Sharks get our 2014 2nd rounder if the Rangers re-sign Clowe (or if the Rangers win two playoff rounds). Kevin posted earlier that the Rangers and Clowe have agreed to the basis for a contract extension, and thus it's probable that Clowe will be a Ranger beyond this year. It's reasonable to assume that Clowe is taking a discount of sorts compared to what he could get on the open market, and thus Sather is not only paying the Sharks for the rental this year, but also to have exclusive rights to Clowe prior to free agency and therefore sign him at a better contract. A look at the potential free agent market for left wingers this summer comes up with an underwhelming group highlighted by Vinny Prospal, Mason Raymond, Dustin Penner, and Brenden Morrow. Not exactly an inspiring list.
So what's the final verdict on this deal? I'm not ready to give it. There are too many factors involved that haven't been decided yet. I'm still not in love with giving up the 2nd and 3rd this year since we don't have our 1st from the Nash trade. But that is around market price and the Rangers were going to have to part with some pieces if any moves were going to be made. We need to see how Clowe performs this year and how far the Rangers go. We need to see if a contract is, in fact, signed, and what the terms of the deal are. In the mean time, this much I can say: Clowe is a sorely needed addition to this team in terms of offense and especially in terms of adding some heart, character, and energy to a team that lost a lot of that in the offseason. I have no doubt that he's going to do something in his first few games as a Ranger to set an example and make his presence known, whether it be with a multiple point night or a fight or something else. Peruse San Jose blogs and forums and you'll see the same words popping up to describe Clowe. "Warrior" is one. "Hates losing" are two others. I think there is a room for that kind of player on this team. In fact, it might be just what the doctor ordered.
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If you look at the Rick Nash trade and the Gaborik trade as one package, the Rangers come out way ahead. That's largely based on my conclusion that Gaborik is completely washed up, which he is.
So we trade 3 picks to San Jose for Clowe and they deal one 3rd round pick to Phoenix for Raffi Torres?
Good post, man. It's nice to have a rational voice in the room considering THE SEASON IS OVER FIRE GABY FIRE TORTS FIRE SAM ROSEN WE'RE NOT GONNA WIN A CUP FOR ANOTHER 50 YEARS WHY DO I EVEN WATCH *foams from mouth*
Quite honestly, I like having Clowe on the team, but not at the cost to get him. Looking at the circumstances, we gave up way too much for a player that has not scored a goal this year. potentially two second rounders and a third rounder? We drafted Derek Stepan, ( Arguably our most effective player) in the second round.
With that being said, we are currently LAST in the league in goals per game. To give up potential draft prospects for someone that is not going to dramatically improve our goal scoring, that is a red flag in my opinion.
Lastly, When looking at our record against playoff teams, it is safe to assume that if we do reach the playoffs, we are likely to be eliminated by the second round. Why give up the future of the organization when your not in the hunt to win it all.
I like Clowe as a player and think he is very effective. But strategically, this was not the right move for our team
@TheNYRBlog Can you DM me the link to the analytics? Lost my bookmark somehow
Clowe is EXACTLY what the Rangers need right now. From what my California connection tells me, he's Prust but with more size and skill - YES, please! This year, if the Ramgers play Ottawa, Clowe will be on the ice to provide Chris Neil with a more suitable dance partner :-p and if it's Boston, then Mr. Lucic better keep his head up. There, doesn't that put it in perspective??!! Draft picks are nice to have but I believe Sather stockpiled 3rd-rounders this year, and you have to give up something to get something in return. They need scoring, too, but let's face it, you're not going to get Steven Stamkos at the trading deadline lol.
Will be very nice to start seeing this again http://www.hockeyfights.com/fights/106352
@Herman_NYRBlog a d guy. Either Dan Boyle or Mcbain
I hope he gets into a fight on his first shift, that would get the garden rowdy tonight, and the fanbase would love him...
That is a rational, detailed, well informed, and well explained analysis of this trade. That is better reporting than the opinionated drivel that comes from any of the major media sources. Seriously, well written and well done!
This is a good deal only if: 1) He returns to form and can score 40-50 pts a year 2) He is resigned for a reasonable extension
I'm really torn on this one too. I think we'll be glad to have Clowe this year, but they likely paid too much.
@Herman_NYRBlog You totally just changed my mind about Clowe and I would say I'm now excited about this.
I like the trade. I am not much worried about giving up 2nd and 3rd picks cause they have a very low success rate. For everry Derek Stepan there are 10-Nigel Dawes, or Dane Byers or Roman Horek etc etc; Besides Clowe is better then anyone they would probably get there. Plus w-the depth in the organization of "depth" playres I would rather help now. I still believe this team can make a run in the playoffs so getting Clowe may ignite that effort.
Anyone who does not like this deal becasue of draft picks is delusional! You have a established NHL player as opposed to a huge maybe, a prayer and a wish. that;s what a second or third pick is. Can anyone name a prospect the Rangers could have drafted with any of those picks that will be NHL ready in 1, 2 or even 3 years? Probably not. Let's give this chance and see what happens. The back of Clowe's card says he will have a impact on offense and provide the toughness this team severerly lacks.
The Rangers have (3) 3rd round picks this year, so the 3rd round pick in 2013 that the sharks received will be in the Panthers position. We got that pick for the Wojtek Wolski trade.
I like the trade.......... The guy is a Warrior, with a good skill set.
@Herman_NYRBlog very well said!
Slats goes out and gets a special tough guy to help the team! Thus Torts will play the guy for three minutes and then not start the guy from then on,or torts will say the guy did not pass his physical!
@Herman_NYRBlog hopefully we redeem trade picks for Boyle, Asham & Pyatt.
Sorry it wasn't a good move because of the price tag. At best for a guy who hasn't scored a goal in almost a year and about to become a UFA Sather overpaid.
Guys like Clowe who have made their career as physical forces in the crease and elsewhere tend to have drastic drops in their skill set that come out of nowhere. (See Adam Graves)
By the way of those 11 assists do you know how many were primary assists, secondary assists or off goals scored because of a play by the goal scorer? In some ways assists are as misleading as plus/minus. Now had Sather waited a day or let someone else take Clowe off the Shark's hand then he could have used those same draft picks, maybe even less to squeeze Mason Raymond away from the Canucks. Who is Mason Raymond? Well if he isn't in a Shark's uniform tomorrow it is because that is who the Canucks were supposedly willing to send for Ryan Clowe. He is having a pretty solid season 9-9-18 and became expendable because the Canucks signed Chris Higgins to an extension. He is only 27 and still has an upside. But here is the other problem which is giving away a 2nd rd pick and Florida's 3rd which is a 2nd with their record. The Rangers are going to be shut out of one of the better entry drafts in years. Oh and the other reason not to make this deal is unless someone takes on Boyle. Asham, Powe or by some miracle Gaborik's contract the Rangers are at their 50 contract limit. No more moves for the Rangers .
I agree with you. Can't get my head around this yet. Iike the guy but not the price. For that price they better sign him for more years at a reasonable salary. And we better make the &$&$ playoffs! How bad would it be to give up all those picks for a guy to play 14 games... This only makes sense to me as a step towards building next years team with anything that happens this year being a bonus. I suspect that Sather will trade for some picks. Does anyone know what we have in picks over the next couple of years?
@Herman_NYRBlog at least sharks didn't send him to the bitchass canucks. Can't wait for some clowe lucic, clowe simmonds bouts!
@billyraz I take way too many naps for my own good.
@jasonshyer While I obviously do insert my opinion at times, my main goal is to give an objective look at situations. I write the facts. The reader can draw his or her own conclusions. Appreciate the nice comments!
@JimmyClarke I'm 100% for Clowe; his addition will be great. It's the cost that concerns me. but be excited about him.
@ThrSage I'd say 2nd rounders are closer to 30-40% success rate than 10%, Dawes and Horak were 5th rounders. In recent years we've gotten Thomas, Stepan, Sauer, Anisimov, Dubinsky, Tyutin.
According to several reports They already have an extension agreed to
@Herman_NYRBlog won me over. I'm a little less concerned about the cost if he agrees to extension. He's a solid bottom 6 forward.
@Herman_NYRBlog I wasn't excited at all but reading your article about him and the fact he will help create for others + drop the gloves